|Usually, election campaigns make very little difference to the vote share. Parties roughly end up getting what was forecast at the start of the campaign. This time round? Pollsters estimate the Conservatives have lost more than 50% of their 20+ point lead, and it seems like the final election result will hinge on where 2015’s UKIP voters go: abstain, Con or Lab.
As for the the betting markets? We got @LadPolitics in this week to talk to us about it.
Last week most money was coming in for “No Overall Majority”. This week has seen a swing back to the Tories. The average of bets taken at Ladbrokes point to a 70-80 Conservative majority.
2/ LIB DEMS
The Lib Dems have been cursed by an endorsement from Bob Geldof. If you bet on exact number of Lib Dems seats 6-9 seem to be the insider picks (and good odds at 12/1).
Election fatigue plus heavy rain forecast? Bet on turnout 60-65% (or under 60% if you’re feeling brave/rained on).
4/ PM ON JULY 1ST
Theresa May is 1/5 but +70% of all bets have been on Jeremy Corbyn (7/2). Activists trying to throw the market? Or genuine, unpolled voters?